The United Ports Confederation of the Philippines, Inc. (UPC) has flagged a growing backlog of Philippine export orders as trade uncertainty mounts over the new US tariff policy, with billions of pesos worth of goods currently on hold.
UPC president Nelson Mendoza said in a stakeholders forum Wednesday exporters were grappling with the ripple effects of the recently imposed 90-day US tariff measure, which triggered widespread hesitation among buyers.
“They were not cancelled, but they’re on hold,” Mendoza said, referring to numerous outbound shipments that are now in limbo. While a temporary reprieve is expected within the 90-day window, the fate of longer-term orders remains unclear, he said.
“Orders for 2025 were already placed in 2024. But the rates in 2024 will not hold because of the new tariff. After 90 days, we don’t know what will happen,” Mendoza said.
The uncertainty is already reshaping shipment schedules and pricing models, particularly for large shipping firms like Maersk.
Maersk cited reports of a possible 20-percent impact on freight costs, translating into significant peso losses given the dollar-based nature of most export contracts.
“But for the Philippines, I think the impact will be limited because we can still import, and I think we still have a very good relationship with the US. Let’s see how it goes in the next 90 days,” said Maerks head of Oceana operations Ma. Elenita Metzker.
Imports are also feeling the squeeze as goods coming from the US are becoming increasingly expensive, while vessel routes have turned erratic.
“That’s going to continue, at least for four years,” Mendoza predicted, referring to the potential duration of the current US administration’s tariff stance.
He said the disruption is deeply felt on the ground as exporters and importers disclosed they have no clear plans.
“The risk is very high. Everyone’s uncertain,” he said.
Mendoza remains hopeful that international negotiations may ease the pressure, and some shipments will inevitably resume.
“Those who hold the goods, they’ll definitely move. These have already been paid for by consignees. It’s just a matter of time,” he said.
The UPC expects a decline in export earnings for the year while noting a potential shift in intra-Asia and European trade routes, and suggested that Chinese firms operating in the Philippines, particularly those within economic zones, may increase production to bypass higher tariffs on Chinese exports.
