A Sara Duterte victory in the 2028 Presidential election is the last thing that the Philippine economy needs. Her conviction after the impeachment trial will take care of the problem.
The nation’s attention is focused on the drama playing out in the halls of Congress, the latest development of which is the Senate’s sending of orders to the House of Representatives (HOR) for certification on two fronts. The orders seek certification on whether the Articles of Impeachment violate the constitutional prohibition of more than one impeachment in a single year and the 20th Congress HOR’s willingness to present the 19th Congress HOR’s impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte.
Aside from being focused on what is happening in Congress – the procedural rules, the motions, the deadlines etc. – the people of this country should also be thinking about the long-term implications of the outcome of Vice-President Duterte’s impeachment trial. That outcome will largely determine the prospects of the Philippine economy after June 30, 2028, when President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will step down and a new six-year Presidential term will begin.
Sara Duterte’s conviction or acquittal will have an utmost impact on the profile of 2028 Presidential contest. If she were to be convicted, she would not be part of that contest because permanent disqualification from holding public office is one of the penalties for conviction. That will take her out of the 2028 Presidential-election equation. If the outcome of the impeachment trial is an acquittal, the situation will be totally different.
As the acknowledged heiress to her incarcerated father’s political fortune, the acquitted Sara Duterte is bound to be the standard-bearer of the Duterte camp in the 2028 Presidential election. That would give rise to the possibility of her winning the election and becoming the 17th President of the Philippine.
What are Sara Duterte’s chances of winning the 2028 Presidential election?
The Dutertistas remain a potent force in this country’s politics. After all, they managed to pull off a five-out-of-twelve (Christopher Go, Ronaldo de la Rosa, Rodante Marcoleta, Imee Marcos and Camille Villar) victory in the recent Senatorial election. Even if she were acquitted, the all damaging evidence that will be presented in the impeachment trial will cause Vice-President Duterte to become what in merchandising circles is known as damaged merchandise. She would be carrying a lot of heavy baggage into the 2028 election.
But strange things have been known to happen in Philippine politics, and Sara could win the 2028 Presidential election if it were possible for her to be a candidate. Her father ran for President as the relatively unknown mayor of a provincial city and was successful; the Filipino people might just elect an impeached Vice-President. Unpalatable as that may be, one should not completely disregard the possibility of a Duterte candidacy – and victory – in the 2028 Presidential election.
For the Philippine economy, a Duterte candidacy would be highly disruptive; a Duterte victory would be disastrous.
On the professional side, Sara Duterte knows next to nothing about the management of a national economy and very little about good public administration. Her resume’ contains only her Vice-Presidency, her tenure as Secretary of Education and her inherited mayorships of Davao City. That is the sum total of her career as a government official. What Sara Duterte knows about public finance is best indicated in the Articles of Impeachment charge that she misspent P612 million of taxpayers’ money on payments to non-existent individuals.
On the intellect side; Sara Duterte, although a lawyer, has given no indications that she has any kind of understanding of the nation’s – as opposed to Davao City’s – real problems and has thought deeply about solutions to this country’s economic problems.
On the personality side, Sara has exemplified the saying that the fruit does not fall for from the tree. Like her father, she is willful – remember the slapping incident involving a Davao City sheriff? – intellectually lazy and inclined to be autocratic.
A Sara Duterte victory in the 2028 Presidential election is the last thing that the Philippine economy needs. Her conviction after the impeachment trial will take care of the problem. The sensible Senator-judges will know the right thing to do. (llagasjessa@yahoo.com)
