“‘It’s a numbers game,’ veteran legislator and former Senate President Franklin Drilon repeats each time he is interviewed”
Senate President Chiz Escudero has postponed the start of the impeachment trial to June 11, supposedly to focus on passing legislation deemed important by the LEDAC presided over by no less than the president himself.
Days before, the president once again vouchsafed that he was never in favor of impeaching his vice-president, although official Malacanang announcements keep saying that it’s the business of the Senate, not theirs.
With very few days left before Congress adjourns sine die, it is clear that Escudero wants the matter taken up by the 20th Congress, which presents many legal questions that would result in an impasse, likely reaching the Supreme Court for constitutional interpretation.
A number of senators have expressed agreement, and many others hide in the closet even if they really do not want to try the charges brought to them by the “HoR Railroad Express” on Feb. 5.
Now the question arises: can the charges be tried by the senators of the 20th Congress, considering that even the composition of the House has changed after the mid-term elections? How do you bind the new Congress to something that was done by their predecessors in the 19th?
Recall further how that fourth impeachment complaint was sneaked in on the day before the recess, obviously signed without reading, despite verification sworn to by the 215 to 260 legislators with the dangled promise of pork and other perks?
The HoR secretariat slept on three previous impeachment complaints filed as early as the last months of 2024 and did not refer these to the Committee on Rules for referral to the Committee on Justice, awaiting “signals” from their gods who crafted a similar complaint in the dead of night for the House Railroad to fast-track on February 5.
The congressmen claim that their fait acompli must perforce be tried “forthright” by the Senate, and having failed to do so before the elections, now press upon the senators, old and new, to commence trial.
But the numbers in the Senate have changed, because the will of the electorate has significantly tilted the balance towards those likely to acquit than convict. (In an interview over the Bilyonaryo channel the day after the elections, this writer stated that at least eleven senators would likely vote for acquitting the VP).
But because of the legal questions hounding the issue of continuing the trial in a new and different Congress, the same senators would now want to thrash the impeachment complaint without trying the same.
The practical way of looking at the issue is by doing the arithmetic.
Truth to tell, if Escudero did not freeze the ball and agreed with the Webster definition of “forthwith”, the same acquittal would have happened. With seven re-electionists fearing the Mindanao and Central Visayan backlash if they voted for conviction, on top of Sara sympathizers among the 12 hold-outs, nine votes to deny conviction would have been easy.
The problem for the blood-hungry members of the HoR was compounded by the rendition of a beloved ex-president by the administration.
The Alyansa thought they would win big, as even their in-house pollster Ambassador Junie Laylo in his November survey predicted with confidence.
At that point, they were willing to concede only one for PDP, and that was Bong Go. Ten-two would be easy, they thought, with only Bong Go and independent Ben Tulfo making the grade. Machinery and resources, they must have thought, would take care of the independent Tulfo, leaving only Tolentino to eat the dust.
But machinery faltered big-time.
The INC, for the first time in its history of senatorial bloc-voting, asked members to write down only 8 names, giving advantage to its choices. Only one of its endorsees, Revilla, lost.
The six INC-supported winners would prefer to acquit. Better yet, they would prefer that the trial does not proceed into the 20th Congress.
Five hold-overs of the 19th Congress, namely the Estrada siblings, Mark Villar, Alan Cayetano and Robinhood of course who would run for re-election in 2028 and remember the “solid punch” coming from Mindanao and Central Visayas delivered in the recent elections.
Raffy Tulfo who has his sights set on higher office will do his own math.
So will Escudero, perhaps even Win G.
And since politicians never say die, Loren and Migs will also weigh the political consequences, even as Joel V, who wants to be the next governor of Bulacan, may not be so affected by the electoral arithmetic.
“It’s a numbers game,” veteran legislator and former Senate President Franklin Drilon repeats each time he is interviewed.
