“The campaign’s biggest misstep was failing to counter the Duterte dynasty’s influence”
IN THE pressure cooker of Philippine politics, the 2025 midterm elections have exposed a bitter truth: the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte was not the sole wrecking ball that demolished the Marcos-backed Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas.
Campaign manager Toby Tiangco insists the impeachment sank his senatorial slate, especially in Mindanao, but the numbers paint a different picture—one of strategic blunders, fractured unity, and the unyielding grip of the Duterte dynasty.
Tiangco’s narrative is a flimsy shield for a campaign’s self-inflicted wounds, sidestepping accountability in a nation wrestling with dynastic power and democratic ideals.
Impeachment: Did it really doom Alyansa?
Tiangco pins Alyansa’s poor showing on the Feb. 2025 impeachment of Sara Duterte, claiming it turned Mindanao voters against his candidates.
He cites internal surveys from late 2024 showing a shift toward candidates opposing the impeachment, calling the loss “self-inflicted” by its initiators.
Yet, the data undercuts his case. Tingog party-list Rep. Jude Acidre notes that 100 of 115 pro-impeachment district lawmakers were reelected—an 86 percent success rate—with 81 percent in Mindanao securing fresh mandates.
If the impeachment was electoral poison, why did its supporters thrive locally?
In the senatorial race, Alyansa’s Erwin Tulfo fell from a poll-leading 45 percent to fourth place, while Lito Lapid, Abby Binay, and Ramon Revilla slipped out of the Magic 12.
Meanwhile, Duterte-backed senators Bong Go and Ronald dela Rosa topped the tally.
The impeachment may have rallied Duterte loyalists, but Tiangco’s singular focus ignores deeper campaign failures.
Campaign chaos: Alyansa’s self-destruction
Alyansa’s rout wasn’t just about external shocks—it was a masterclass in unforced errors. Internal fractures crippled the coalition, with Senator Imee Marcos’s April 2025 exit and Rodrigo Duterte’s March arrest exposing rifts.
Tiangco failed to mend these, leaving Alyansa fragmented.
His “clean campaign” of platforms and track records misread Mindanao’s emotional loyalty to the Dutertes.
Overreliance on pre-election polls, like OCTA’s May 9 survey showing 10 of 11 Alyansa candidates winning, bred complacency. When only six made the Magic 12, Tiangco had no fallback.
The campaign’s biggest misstep was failing to counter the Duterte dynasty’s influence. Despite Sara’s impeachment, Rodrigo won Davao City’s mayoral race from an ICC cell, and Sebastian claimed the vice mayoralty.
Five Duterte-backed senators led nationally. Alyansa was outmaneuvered by a family that turned adversity into electoral gold.
Vendetta or accountability?
Was the impeachment a pursuit of justice or a Marcos power play?
Charges of fund misuse and alleged assassination threats, backed by reelected lawmakers like Joel Chua, suggest a strong case.
The House’s 240-vote approval underscores its weight.
Yet, Tiangco’s claims of coerced signatures—tied to fears of budget cuts—fuel suspicions of a vendetta to sideline Sara, a potential 2028 rival.
The UniTeam’s 2022 collapse adds credence to this. Voters split: Mindanao saw the impeachment as an attack on a native daughter, while the 86 percent reelection rate of pro-impeachment lawmakers suggests national support for accountability.
Duterte’s unbroken grip
The Dutertes’ Mindanao dominance—Rodrigo’s mayoral win, Sebastian’s vice mayoralty, and their senators’ sweep—proves their resilience.
Sara’s Supreme Court challenge and fiery rhetoric cast her as a martyr.
The July 2025 Senate trial, with Duterte-friendly senators like Go, may end in acquittal, cementing her 2028 prospects.
Alyansa’s failure to pierce this dynastic armor highlights Tiangco’s strategic blindness.
Democracy’s fragile edge
The impeachment tests Philippine democracy.
It showcases checks and balances, yet coercion allegations and the Marcos-Duterte feud erode trust.
A Senate acquittal could embolden dynasties; a conviction might deepen polarization.
The stakes for institutional integrity are immense.
Reforms for resilience
To restore trust, the Philippines needs: transparent campaign audits to expose strategic failures; a bipartisan panel to depoliticize impeachments; stronger anti-dynasty laws; and civic education to prioritize policy over personality.
Tiangco’s impeachment excuse masks Alyansa’s implosion—fractured unity, misfired messaging, and a failure to counter the Dutertes’ sway.
The 86 percent reelection of pro-impeachment lawmakers and Duterte’s sweep reveal a campaign’s collapse, not a trial’s fallout.
As the Senate trial looms, the Philippines must choose: dynastic loyalty or democratic accountability.
