IMF warns ‘more severe consequences’ if Iran-Israel tensions disrupt supply
World oil prices continued to remain volatile with domestic pump prices seen rising to over P4 per liter next week as tensions between Iran and Israel sent markets into a tailspin.
“Crude oil trading has been volatile and prices have remained elevated. MOPS (Mean of Platts) prices are seen to continue their rally in today’s (Thursday) trading, possibly closing higher than yesterday,” Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas.
He said diesel prices are now expected to go up by P3.80 to P4.10 per liter and gasoline by P2.60 to 2.80 per liter.
Oil firms adjust domestic pump prices every Tuesday.
Prevailing retail prices of petroleum products in the National Capital Region from June 10 to 16, 2025 showed that gasoline now sells from P44 to P72.23 per liter, diesel from P44 to P67 per liter and kerosene from P67.69 to P82.75 per liter.
In an interview with Channel News Asia, International Monetary Fund first deputy managing director Gita Gopinath said: “As of now, the movements in oil prices have been fairly orderly. They’ve gone up some, but there has not been a dramatic increase in oil prices. At the levels at which they are right now, the impact should be fairly contained for the world.”
However, markets are bracing for supply disruption if the conflict escalates further, with Iran threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical channel for oil trade.
“A lot depends upon the scale of this conflict and whether it becomes a broader conflict, in which case, of course, the consequences could be much more severe,” Gopinath added.
For his part, Camarines Sur Rep. Luis Raymund Villafuerte appealed to the Marcos administration to consider putting up the long-proposed strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) to stabilize supply and prices amid the rising Israel- Iran tension.
“Filipinos are expectedly anxious and jumpy over the rising pump prices of fuel that are seen to rocket further in the weeks or months ahead… Hence, now more than ever seems like the right time for putting on the front burner the long-proposed SPR Plan (SPRP) for the government to purchase and stock up on fuel when global prices are low and unload or sell such reserves at relatively lower prices, primarily for the benefit of ordinary consumers or motorists, when global rates are high as a result of geopolitical tensions or other factors,” Villafuerte said.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. earlier said fuel subsidies are already being prepared as he acknowledged that higher oil prices would impact many sectors, especially public transportation.
“We are starting already with the assumption that the oil prices will in fact go up,” President Marcos said, pointing to the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked if regional conflict escalates.
“The oil cannot come out of its sources. So, the prices will certainly be affected,” he added.
Should crude prices exceed $80 per barrel, government fuel aid for public transport drivers and fisherfolk will be automatically triggered. As of June 16, the price of Dubai crude was at US$73 per barrel. With AFP
