A leading cryptocurrency trader in the Philippines expects the value of digital assets to rise under the new tariff regime instigated by US President Donald Trump.
Arlone Abello, founder and chief executive of Global Miranda Miner Group and Innovative Movement of the Philippine Association of Crypto Traders (IMPACT), said he expects the value of Bitcoin to average $75,000 over the next two years, with a wide range of $50,000 to $150,000.
“From a bear case perspective, Bitcoin may settle at around $75,000 apiece, a retest of the previous resistance. If it falls behind this resistance, it may reach $50,000 from a high of $109,000 in November-December 2024. As we speak right now, we’re at $78,000. I’m seeing strong support for $75,000 to $74,000. If it collapses, we’ll be within that neighborhood that I mentioned earlier. And the other cryptos are going to follow,” Abello said in an interview.
“Now our bull case is about $150,000 for Bitcoin within the next two years. If the recession narrative happens, it’s a pretty bullish case for Bitcoin, basically because after every recession, people buy on a discount. Tech stocks and crypto are top picks for institutions in our own research,” he said.
Cryptocurrency is a digital currency created using encryption algorithms like blockchain. Abello, a professional trader, cryptocurrency educator, licensed financial advisor and registered financial planner, described blockchain and AI as the technologies of the future.
Abello said the US government is a major investor in cryptocurrencies, holding around 3 percent of Bitcoin as reserves. The US Justice Department recently disbanded its National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team, as Trump announced plans to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve and digital assets stockpile.
“Let us not look at crypto as a scam. Let us take it with a grain of salt. At the end of the day, let’s try to understand what’s behind it,” said Abello, while admitting that there are many scammers using cryptocurrencies to commit financial fraud and victimize investors in the Philippines.
Abello confirmed that several groups are offering digital tokens to deceive potential investors through honeypot scams, front-running and sandwich attacks.
Abello also said not everyone is qualified to become a cryptocurrency investor. “Number one, what’s your tolerance for volatility or drawdown? For example, if you invest P20,000 pesos, it could drop to P15,000 in a day. Can you tolerate it? If you cannot tolerate drawdowns, crypto is not for you. It’s very volatile,” he said.
He said one should have a sufficient financial buffer against medical and financial emergencies before investing in cryptocurrencies. “Build your emergency funds first, amounting to at least six months of your monthly operating expenses,” he said.
“And if you’re going to trade using debt, don’t. In crypto trading, our investment could fall to zero overnight and it may not recover again,” he said.
Abello noted the potential for significant financial rewards, citing Bitcoin investors who bought it for less than $10,000 in 2020. “After five years, it climbed to $80,000, or by eight times,” he said.
Abello, who started as a trader in the Philippine Stock Exchange in 2016, said cryptocurrency trading could provide another investment avenue for those looking outside the equities market.
“Cryptocurrency trading is 24/7, and there are no holidays, unlike the stock market. The daily turnover at the PSE is only P4 billion. For crypto, from a volume perspective, it averages $90 billion a day. It can go as high as $150 billion or as low as $40 billion, depending on market activity,” he said.
Abello said he formed IMPACT to help raise Filipinos’ awareness of cryptocurrency. “We travel around the Philippines, and right now the whole world, with Dubai as our first stop this April. Our next stops will be Taiwan and South Korea,” he said. Roderick T. dela Cruz
