First Metro Securities Brokerage Corp. (FirstMetroSec) expects a stronger year for Philippine equities in 2025, citing improving economic conditions, policy support and structural growth drivers that could fuel renewed investor confidence.
Speaking at the “Trader’s Playbook 2025: BUY the Early Cycle Winners” online market briefing, the FirstMetroSec research team, along with the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development (ACERD), provided insights on key investment trends shaping 2025.
“We believe the market is positioned for a turnaround,” said Reuben Mark Angeles, first vice president and equity research division head of FirstMetroSec.
“With inflation easing, economic data improving, and monetary policy becoming more accommodative, the business cycle is shifting from a slowdown to early recovery,” said Angeles.
FirstMetroSec expects the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) to reach 7,600, with a broader target range of 6,600 to 8,600.
Several factors are expected to drive market momentum, including a potential reduction in stock transaction taxes that could improve market liquidity, an upgraded credit outlook supporting capital flows, and increased domestic consumption ahead of the midterm elections.
Structural growth opportunities are also emerging, particularly with the Luzon Economic Corridor, a trilateral initiative between the U.S., Japan and the Philippines that positions Clark, Pampanga, as a future economic hub.
Despite global uncertainties, FirstMetroSec said the Philippines remains resilient due to its domestically driven economy, ample reserves and strong geopolitical ties with the U.S. While Trump’s policies introduce some risks, many of these concerns have already been priced into valuations.
Dr. Ser Percival Peña-Reyes, director of ACERD, said GDP growth could reach 6 percent, supported by improving fundamentals. However, he cautioned that sustained growth should come from meaningful investments rather than short-term election-driven spending.
“We want spending to have a lasting impact, creating jobs and strengthening industries rather than fueling temporary consumption,” he said. He said inflation is expected to remain within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2-percent to 4-percent target range, helping maintain price stability and support economic activity.
Meanwhile, Estella Dhel Villamiel, institutional research head of FirstMetroSec, identified key investment themes for 2025, including early-cycle recovery, midterm election plays, greater AI adoption and companies positioned to benefit from AI-driven efficiency gains.
“The Year of the Snake presents a fresh chance to approach the market differently. Stay agile, focused, and ready to shed what’s holding you back,” said FirstMetroSec senior vice president Mhelvin Abajon, acknowledging the challenging market conditions of 2024 but encouraging investors to take advantage of emerging opportunities in 2025.
