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Wednesday, July 9, 2025
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The ‘monster conclave’

TOMORROW, the seventh of May, geopolitics is likely to be read and thought of in pensive reflection as 133 cardinals will meet to choose the successor to Pope Francis.

Francis, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio in Buenos Aires, Argentina to Italian immigrant parents, died at the age of 88 on Easter Monday at the Vatican City, after 12 years as head of the 1.406 billion Catholics worldwide.

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Vatican observers say the 133 cardinals will move to the closed-door conclave – also known as secret assembly or synod – to choose the new pope: two rounds of voting each morning, and another two in the afternoon, until they reach consensus.

They point to the conclaves from the 1900s onward to have ended in under four consecutive days.

But in the 13th century, one conclave lasted nearly three years between 1268 and 1271, following the death of Pope Clement IV – the prolonged election led to significant changes in the conclave process, making it more secretive and free from outside influence.

The conclave that elected Pope Gregory X lasted 1,006 days, with the secret vote lasting from Nov. 1268 to Sept. 1271, the first example of a papal election by “compromise,” after a long struggle between supporters of two main geopolitical medieval factions – those faithful to the papacy and those supporting the Holy Roman Empire. .

Many observers, along with betting agencies, point to 70-year-old seasoned insider and Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin as the likely front-runner, with the Italian seen as a trusted hand and someone who could unite a fractured electorate simply by being the familiar face in the room.

Also seen as forebearer is the Jesuit-educated 67-year-old Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, currently serving as the Pro-Prefect of the Section for the First Evangelization and New Particular Churches of the Dicastery for Evangelization.

He has stood out for his theological openness, talent and warmth as a pastor – underscored by recently revived video capturing his enthusiasm for karaoke.

Two other Italians – Archbishop of Bologna Matteo Zuppi, 70, and Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem – are also considered strong contenders. Both are pickled in church history, have a clear grasp of the Curia’s inner workings and are skilled in the Italian art of concertazione, a nuanced form of political compromise.

Then geopolitics is likely to weigh more heavily in this conclave than in those past, also seen as the most dramatic of the last 50 years, according to longtime Vatican observers.

Ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the continuation of Francis’ outreach to the Muslim world and mounting concerns over rising autocracy in the United States are all expected to shape the cardinals’ deliberations.

This multiplicity of perspectives makes consensus harder to forge, observers underline.

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