“The Davao loyalists would need to see the 2025 senatorial elections as battleground in a war against the administration forces”
PULSE Asia released the results of its survey with field work done on Jan. 18 to 25 with 2,400 respondents distributed proportionately to voting population throughout the country.
It is what I would call the firing gun survey.
From now till May 12, who wins and who loses will depend on how the senatorial candidates perform on the campaign trail — their messaging, their media network, their ground support, and, of course, the resources needed for widespread communications and ground operations.
While it is generally regarded that those who made it to the top six in the firing gun survey are assured of being among the 12, albeit in differing slots according to how their message resonate with the voters, those in the lower six, plus another six currently outside the magic circle, would have to slug it out for the next 86 days.
Still, a sure six may not necessarily be true this time.
Absent any major fiasco, Erwin Tulfo, Bong Go, Tito Sotto and Pia Cayetano are assured of making it, although their rankings could yet vary. I did not include Ben Tulfo or Bong Revilla because their current numbers are no assurance of victory, the former because many voters may see two Tulfos plus one already in the Senate as too much even for a dynasty-tolerant electorate.
As for the re-electionist senator who magically got his surname registered as Bong Revilla, the better to be listed by the Comelec as No. 11 instead of above 50, opponents or civil society activists might yet remind the public of his unpaid return of some 200 million pesos which the Sandiganbayan ordered, even as he was acquitted of plunder, with his chief of staff taking the sword for him, eventually dying in prison.
The numbers of the lower six, namely Imee Marcos, Ping Lacson, Willie Revillame, Bato de la Rosa, Abby Binay and Manny Pacquiao are still within or slightly lower than the overall margin of error of plus minus 2. Which means that Camille Villar, with an abundance of family fortunes, and currently 8 points below the safe Pia Cayetano, could yet dislodge one of the eight in the survey list of winnables.
Whether Coco Martin and Batang Quiapo, the trick-in-trade of re-electionist Sen. Lito Lapid, could work wonders for him the same way Ang Probinsyano did in 2019 is also debatable. “Bumenta na ‘yan,” the wa-is might say.
Kiko Pangilinan and Bam Aquino of the pink coalition are 10 to 12 points lower than 12th placer Manny Pacquiao. Can they yet resurrect the “volunteer movements” that vivified the 2022 campaign of the losing Leni Robredo where Kiko ran as vice-president and Bam was campaign manager?
The Liberal Party and its ground network has been largely decimated, a shadow of what it was in President PNoy’s time, even less than how the PDP was depopulated after President Duterte’s term. Such is the way of our stupid political system, where turncoatism has become normal.
Gringo Honasan, running as an independent balik-senador, cannot be discounted, if, and that is a big if, he can count on the 5 to 6 percent Bicol vote to vote for him alone, as they did for the late Sen. Victor Ziga way back 1987, and if the Guardians can work their butts off for his candidacy.
As things stand, the Alyansa will have to huff and puff and mobilize its ground troops behind Benhur Abalos and Francis Tolentino within these short three months.
Doc Willie Ong has kept his numbers despite no advertising and hardly any expenditures on air or ground, and his inclusion in the PDP’s ticket could yet create a miracle, if those who want to side with the embattled Vice-President find him more acceptable than the others fielded by the PDP.
The highly qualified Rodante Marcoleta is one who could also surprise everyone, if the bloc-voting INC goes beyond including his name in their list, and exerts influence on local candidates to include him … or else.
I wish my friends, lawyer and composer Jimmy Bondoc and Medal of Valor awardee Ariel Querubin could make it to the Senate, but with single-digit conversion from less than 50 percent awareness levels, that would be very difficult.
The elephant in the room, if we may use that metaphor in reading the firing gun survey, is how the electorate reacts to the fight-to-the-death battle between the combatant dynasties brought about by the impeachment of Vice-President Sara.
Unless Malacanang calls for a special session to activate a trial which SP Escudero has decided to convene after the May elections, the Davao loyalists would need to see the 2025 senatorial elections as battleground in a war against the administration forces.
Can they galvanize strong public support versus an administration determined to deprive the vice-president of her 2028 plans? The President minced no words in his fighting speech in Laoag last Tuesday. He has thrown the gauntlet.
