The Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) expressed confidence there would be no red and yellow alerts in the power grid next year on the back of adequate power supply and the projected La Niña weather phenomenon that will result in cooler temperatures.
“If you look at the weather now, also according to PAGASA, La Nina has already started. So going into summer next year, based on our latest projections, we don’t have any, we don’t see any red and yellow alerts….As usual, the catch is, there won’t be unplanned or forced outage. Because the planning of plant outages is included in the so-called grid operations and maintenance program,” said IEMOP vice president for trading operations Isidro Cacho.
The Luzon grid was beset by red and yellow alerts in the first half of 2024 amid high temperatures and lack of generating capacity.
A red alert status is issued when power supply is insufficient to meet consumer demand and the transmission grid’s regulating requirement, while a yellow alert is issued when the operating margin is insufficient to meet the transmission grid’s contingency requirement.
IEMOP is the operator of the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market, the trading floor of electricity.
Cacho said they are optimistic that there will be no red and yellow alerts during the dry months next year as the power plants already scheduled their maintenance shutdown.
He said the Luzon grid reached an all-time peak demand of 14,000 megawatts during the dry months of 2024, and they expect 2025 to be slightly higher.
“Next year, based on the projection, it will be a little higher. But, of course, considering the La Niña, it may not be as hot as last summer. So, hopefully, it’s a bit tamer, I guess, compared to last summer. So, that provides some leeway on our demand side,” Cacho said.
Cacho said the projected supply in Luzon is expected to reach 19,000 MW, which may still be affected by plant derating and maintenance outages.
