MOSCOW—The Kremlin declined yesterday to confirm reports that toppled Syrian president Bashar al-Assad had fled to Moscow, adding that it was “surprised” by the rebel takeover.
“As for Mr Assad’s whereabouts, I’ve got nothing to tell you,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists.
A Kremlin source told Russian news agencies on Sunday that Assad and his family were in Moscow, hours after he fled the country as Islamist-led rebels entered Damascus. Assad’s son has been studying in the Russian capital.
Peskov said on Monday that if Russia granted asylum to Assad and his family, this would be a decision taken by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“Of course, such decisions cannot be taken without the head of state, and it’s his decision,” Peskov said. He said there was no meeting with Assad on Putin’s agenda.
Russia has given shelter to several ousted leaders, including former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych.
In Manila, the Department of Migrant Workers (DMW) urged Filipinos in Syria to avoid conflict-ridden areas due to potential risks of harm following the fall of the regime of Basher Al-Assad.
DMW Secretary Hans Leo Cacdac urged Filipinos to take necessary precautions and keep in touch with the Philippine Embassy in Damascus amid the heightened conflict.
He said the DMW was coordinating with the Department of Foreign Affairs to assist Filipinos in Syria, whose exact number remained “uncertain” due to a total deployment ban imposed by the Philippines 15 years ago due to the conflict.
Some Filipinos in Syria are likely married to Syrian nationals, and some may be employed as domestic workers who could have skirted the deployment ban, Cacdac said.
“We will still help Filipinas who are married to Syrians especially those with children,” he said.
In brief comments on the dramatic events in Syria over the last few days, Peskov admitted the Kremlin was taken by surprise.
“What happened has surprised the whole world and, in this case, we are no exception,” he said.
Russia has strategically important army and naval bases in Syria, where it launched a military intervention on the side of Assad in 2015.
“Now there will be a very complex period due to instability,” Peskov said.
Asked what would happen to Russia’s bases, he said: “It is too early to say. This is a subject for discussion with whoever is going to be in power in Syria.”
The Kremlin spokesman said that the security of the bases was “very important.”
“We are doing everything that is possible and necessary to get in touch with those who can provide security. And our military are also taking precautionary measures,” it said.
The Kremlin source quoted by Russian news agencies on Sunday had said the rebels who ousted Assad “guaranteed the security of Russian army bases and diplomatic institutions on Syria’s territory.”
Syria’s embassy in Moscow raised the opposition flag at the building on Monday, with a spokesman saying the facility was operating normally.
Peskov said Russia was “in dialogue” with Turkey, which supported rebel forces in Syria, saying: “Here it’s important to maintain dialogue with all countries. We firmly intend to do this and analyze the situation.”
With Assad gone, Middle East battle lines are redrawn
It took just 11 days for Syrian rebels to force Bashar al-Assad to flee the country and impose a new revision of the strategic map in the Middle East.
The Syrian strongman had for nearly 14 years held off an uprising that many believed had been exhausted. But his downfall followed a series of battlefield convulsions for other allies of Iran.
Israel has all but decapitated the Hezbollah leadership in Lebanon since September, while the killing of Hamas figureheads has dealt major blows to Assad’s key backer Tehran.
Andreas Krieg, a security specialist at King’s College London, said that Iran and other “Axis of Resistance” members would now have to concentrate on their “home turf”.
“And so the axis will lose its transnational flavor and its regional strategic depth.”
The lightning speed at which the rebels, dominated by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, took Aleppo and then the country stunned the whole world.
No one in Syria, or in the capitals that opposed or supported Assad, had expected Damascus to fall so quickly. Attention had been focused on the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas and Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The 59-year-old Syrian leader long seemed secure with the backing of his Iranian, Russian and Hezbollah allies.
Some Arab neighbors had even started moves to normalize relations, strained since the civil war started with the repression of anti-government protests in 2011.
But HTS, which originated from Al-Qaeda before severing ties, smashed that outlook in just a few days when cities fell and statues of Assad’s feared father Hafez al-Assad were toppled.
The Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, drew Iran and its “Axis of Resistance” allies into a conflict that has exposed their weaknesses.
Hezbollah’s military power has been undermined and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has been killed by Israel.
Israel had already been attacking Hezbollah’s military and financial supply lines from Iran through Syria.
That support faces a fresh threat from the new masters of Damascus who will point to Hezbollah’s crucial role in keeping Assad in power for so long.
Iran’s remaining supporters in Yemen and Iraq, while harassing the United States and its allies in the region, remain a nuisance but appear unable to effect major change.
Russia, embroiled in a resource-sapping war with Ukraine, also faces high stakes decisions as it biggest Middle East naval base is at Tartus on Syria’s Mediterranean coast.
“They are likely going to lose that,” said Krieg. “I can’t see how the new regime or the new socio-political order will allow the Russians to remain after everything the Russians have done to prop up the Assad regime.”
Turkey, a key supporter of the rebels, is the big regional winner from Assad’s fall, Krieg added.
But while it has influence, it does not control the rebels, he said.
With conflict being fought on several Middle East fronts, the region will also have to handle the new US administration of Donald Trump.
“In a moment of complete uncertainty, this transformative event makes everything so unpredictable,” said Aron Lund, a specialist at the Century International think tank.
“It is not just Assad’s regime falling, it is also the question of what comes in its place? And how long does it take to crystallize? So you could easily have various types of regional contests play out in Syria,” Lund told AFP.
Editor’s Note: This is an updated article. Originally posted with the headline “Russia mum on Assad whereabouts, ‘surprised’ by Syria developments.”
